It was two months ago when the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. As the England international curled home his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
It remains a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, while the victories have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping their talisman to rescue them with two clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened against United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge Villa must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
